Tuley: Week 9 NFL ATS picks (2024)

Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff WriterOct 31, 2013, 04:19 PM ET
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LAS VEGAS -- I've said it before, I'll say it again, and I'll keep saying it: The point spread is the great equalizer.

I went 3-3 against the spread last week and remain at exactly .500 at 27-27-1 ATS. That's certainly not the goal as we try to find value to increase the winning percentage. But last week, at least, I found my "dog-or-pass" contrarian approach -- which often finds me against the general public and on the same side that the sports books need -- to be a moral victory as favorites went 8-5 ATS and the books had their worst week so far this season.

If anything, I wish I had been a little more selective. In the LVH SuperContest, where you pick five games per week, I dropped my sixth play here of the Falcons plus-2.5 versus the Cardinals mainly because it was turning into a public dog. If I had passed here as well, I would have managed to stay above .500. But I guess I can't beat myself up too much as my plays on the Cowboys-Lions and Giants-Eagles ended up being winning plays for the public as well. If I had passed on all of those, I would have fared even worse.

So it's back to the betting board with a second straight week with six teams on a bye. Hopefully we make the right calls on get on the right side of .500.

Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially because they mostly have you pick games straight up, and the games are closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column. Good luck.

Last week: 3-3 ATS | Year to date: 27-27-1 (50 percent) ATS

Note: Consensus pick percentages as of late Thursday night.

Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers minus-7.5
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Panthers

Public perception: The Panthers have won and covered three straight games in blowout fashion and the public has jumped on the bandwagon. Cam Newton has mixed the run and the pass for a balanced offense and the defense is ranked fourth in the league. Meanwhile, the Falcons have turned into a team to fade as they've underachieved to the tune of 2-5 SU and ATS.

Wiseguys' view: I'd like to thank those who have taken the time to say they appreciate me pointing out the profitable teaser games even though they're not part of my official record here. This is one of the games that will be a popular teaser for both sharps and squares this week as you can get the Panthers under a field goal.

Tuley's Take: As far as the spread is concerned, I think it's been overinflated (it was Panthers minus-6 on the LVH's advance line just a week ago) based on the Panthers' short-term result and the Falcons' slide. Yes, the Panthers are looking good and I'll likely be on them as a 'dog in some of their games coming up, but I don't think this line should be more than a touchdown based on their wins over the Vikings, Rams and Buccaneers. I mean, the Falcons are struggling, but they're still better than those teams and will make a game of this. It certainly wouldn't be shocking if they pull the outright upset.

The pick: Falcons.

Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys minus-10
Public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Cowboys

Public perception: The Cowboys might not be "America's Team" anymore, but you couldn't tell that from the ticket counts on them as they're getting more and more popular bettors with their NFL-best 7-1 record against the spread.

Wiseguys' view: Some sharps have snapped up some Cowboys minus-9.5s that were out there and some Vikings plus-11 or plus-10.5, but otherwise have stayed away from this as it's a solid 10.

Tuley's Take: The Cowboys have been good to me, but I find myself having to go against them here with this line going so high. Double-digit underdogs were 1-3 ATS last week with only the Rams coming through against the Seahawks on Monday night, but they're still a long-term profitable play. The Cowboys defense allows the most yards per game in the NFL at 422.5, so hopefully the Vikings can have enough success to keep this close. Dallas' home-field advantage hasn't been too strong since "Jerry World" opened, so I'm counting on them being content to just get out with a single-digit win.

The pick: Vikings.

Matchup: New Orleans Saints at New York Jets

Spread: Saints minus-6
Public consensus pick: 88 percent picked Saints

Public perception: The public is all over the Saints, as they're 6-1 straight up (with their only loss being that wild finish against the Patriots three week ago) and 5-2 ATS. The public has liked the Jets on occasion too, but when given the choice between a high-flying offense and a solid defense, the public will almost always side with the former.

Wiseguys' view: This will be another popular teaser play as you can take the Saints to pick 'em, but a lot of wiseguys also will be jumping in on the Jets plus the points when the line peaks closer to kickoff. If it gets to a touchdown, I wouldn't expect that to last long.

Tuley's Take: I would love to make a case for the home underdog here, but I just can't. While I'm still not sold on the Saints defense and will be fading them down the line, the Jets still don't have enough firepower to get me to back them in this spot.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Saints).

Matchup: Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams

Spread: Titans minus-3
Public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Titans

Public perception: The last time we saw the Titans, they were getting blown out 31-17 by the 49ers (and the game wasn't as close as the score indicates), while the Rams have covered three of their last four. However, the public (emboldened by the big chalk weekend) is on the favorite here as they usually prefer teams off a bye even though they're 5-5 ATS this year. Note: PJ Walsh's ESPN Insider story earlier this week did find long-term results for favorites off a bye.

Wiseguys' view: Sharp early bettors grabbed all the plus-3.5 that was available. They'll probably stay away now, though some will go ahead and use the Rams as a teaser over a touchdown.

Tuley's Take: I wish I had grabbed the Rams plus-3.5, but even then I wouldn't feel too good about it. The Titans are a team I was dead-wrong about as they've exceeded expectations at 4-2-1 ATS. I don't trust the Rams being consistent enough to come through again (and at this price they would probably need to win outright instead of just stay close and cover).

The pick: Pass (pool play: Titans).

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Chiefs minus-3
Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Chiefs

Public perception: The Chiefs are the league's last undefeated team and continue to get backed by the public despite failing to cover the past two weeks in victories over the Texans and Browns.

Wiseguys' view: As in the previous game, the sharps have been grabbing any plus-3.5 that were available (as of this writing, only one such line remained in Vegas with Station Casinos at Bills plus-3.5 and a money line attached of minus -120).

Tuley's Take: I am with the wiseguys on this one. As much as I respect what the Chiefs have done, they're not a dominating, run-up-the-score team like others that have been undefeated deep into the season. They win with defense and running the ball and grind out the close games. The Bills are 5-3 ATS (2-1 with undrafted/unheralded Thaddeus Lewis under center) and were hanging with the Saints last week before finally getting blown out. They're playing well enough -- especially being 4-0 ATS at home with upsets of the Panthers and Ravens and spread-covering losses to the Patriots and Bengals -- to hand the Chiefs their first defeat.

The pick: Bills.

Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins

Spread: Chargers minus-1
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Chargers

Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders

Spread: Raiders minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Raiders

Public perception: The Raiders are 5-2 ATS and 3-1 ATS at home with upset wins over the Chargers and Steelers in their past two at home. With the Eagles offense sputtering -- having scored just 10 points combined in their past two games -- why wouldn't the public be on the Raiders?

Wiseguys' view: This line was Eagles minus-3 a week ago when it looked like Michael Vick was back healthy. He reinjured his hamstring and this line flipped to the Raiders being favored. The news that Nick Foles has cleared concussion protocols and is expected to start is the only thing that has kept this from going to a full field goal (and beyond).

Tuley's Take: I missed on the Raiders as a live 'dog last week against the Steelers, but even though the Raiders are much improved, I think there has been an over-adjustment in the line here. Still, I'm not ready to back the Eagles with the way the offense has struggled, regardless of who is at quarterback. I might be more tempted if it gets to Eagles plus-3 (and I think they're a strong underdog teaser play).

The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles).

Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks minus-16
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Seahawks

Public perception: Despite their non-cover against the Rams on "Monday Night Football," the Seahawks still are considered among the NFL's elite and it's not surprising the public will continue to back them. It's also not as though the Bucs (1-6 ATS) give them any reason to pause.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are mostly avoiding this game, and probably will continue to do so unless the public bets this higher and higher until they can't resist taking the huge points.

Tuley's Take: I've taken grief for betting the Jaguars when they keep getting more and more points, but at least I've resisted doing the same with the Bucs. And I'm not doing it here, especially with the way the Seahawks usually roll at home.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Seahawks).

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Ravens minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Ravens

Public perception: Despite their cover last week against the Chiefs, the Browns have lost three straight games and the public isn't interested in backing them. And here again we have a favorite off the bye, and it's the defending Super Bowl champions.

Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys don't see that much difference between these two teams and quickly grabbed the plus-3s that were available and will likely be on the Browns in teasers.

Tuley's Take: The Browns are certainly a live home 'dog here, but just like the Eagles' game, this is an underdog about which I don't feel good enough to take unless getting the full field goal as insurance. It's just too common of a winning margin, and this looks like a game that should come down to a field goal either way.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns).

Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots minus-6.5
Public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Patriots

Public perception: The Patriots at home lying under a touchdown? Well, you know the public will be all over that, especially after they came through for them last week after a slow start against the Dolphins. And it doesn't help that the Steelers failed as a road favorite at Oakland. The books will be forced to cheer for the underdog here as the public will likely have the Patriots on every teaser ticket.

Wiseguys' view: This line has been wavering back and forth between 6.5 and 7, with the sharps taking the Steelers plus the touchdown. With the public pushing back on the Patriots, that dance probably will continue through the weekend.

Tuley's Take: The Patriots aren't as dominant as we've seen in recent years (and Tom Brady's hand injury isn't helping, though he rallied them last week), but the Steelers defense also isn't what it used to be, so I can't see them keeping this close enough, even with the points.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).

Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Spread: Colts minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 85 percent picked Colts

Public perception: The Colts' bandwagon is overflowing, and for good reason with upsets of the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. And here we have yet another favorite off their bye.

Wiseguys' view: It was a little surprising that the Texans actually opened as high as a two-point favorite at the LVH here in Vegas and minus-1 at the Pinnacle offshore book, as well as the Wynn. However it shows that oddsmakers still respect the Texans despite their struggles.

Tuley's Take: I side with the oddsmakers on this and will fade the move to the Colts being favored. The Texans nearly knocked off the Chiefs in Case Keenum's debut, and now they've had the bye week as well. Remember that this is the same system the Broncos used years ago when no matter which running back was inserted, they had success. If Arian Foster (hamstring) is able to go, all the better, but I still think they'll have success running against the Colts defense.

The pick: Texans.

Matchup: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers minus-11
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Packers

Public perception: The Pack is back, and so are their backers (not that they ever went away as they're always a public team). Jay Cutler's groin injury also has bettors running from supporting the Bears.

Wiseguys' view: This line was only Packers minus-8 on the LVH advance line (and that was after Cutler's injury two weeks ago at Washington). It re-opened minus-7.5 last Sunday afternoon and it wasn't until the Packers' 44-31 win over the Vikings on Sunday night that it was adjusted to double digits.

Tuley's Take: I'll fade the move here. The Packers are more balanced on offense, but they did still give up 31 points. And even though the Bears lost to the Redskins, it was encouraging how the offense didn't really miss a beat with Josh McCown. I think the Bears will be able to score enough to keep this close and the game could come down to whether the Bears are able to get key turnovers or which punt returner makes the big play (Bears with Devin Hester or Packers with Micah Hyde, who has a league-leading 18.6 yards per return). Either way, I think the game will be closer than a lot of people expect.

The pick: Bears.

Streak for the cash

When playing this contest, it's doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games will usually be favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog. Note: With so many big spreads this week, there are slim pickings for NFL games being used in "Streak for the Cash."

Best bet: Saints over Jets

This is simple, as the Saints (6-point favorites) are bigger favorites than you usually get the chance to take in "Streak for the Cash." The danger is that just as in other survivor-type pools, if everyone makes this play and it loses, it wipes out everyone except for those who took the "obvious" play. That being said, I think the Saints get it done on the road as the Jets won't be able to match score-for-score.

Confidence meter: 70 percent (which is right around where I think the money line will close with the vig removed)

Titans over Rams: If you want to pass on the obvious play, this is the next-best choice.

Confidence meter: 57 percent (which is right around where I think the money line will close with the vig removed). I don't have a third recommended play for the Streak game this weekend, as I like the rest of the underdogs in the NFL games offered. I would only use one of these other games if trying to start a new streak, otherwise I'd look to other sports.